Spatiotemporal analysis and epidemiological characterization of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Libya within a twenty five year period: 1993-2017.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is an alarming problem in North African countries, but few studies have analyzed the geographical distribution of the epidemic. Libya, the second largest country in Africa and with the longest coast on the Mediterranean basin facing Europe, has experienced major outbreaks of HIV infection. Since then, no studies have followed up on the burden of HIV infections. To plan interventions and allocate resources, spatial analysis of HIV/AIDS clusters are required in order to identify epidemic foci and trends in the country. The objective of this study was to assess HIV infection clustering and trends in Libya. METHODS: Information on all recorded HIV/AIDS cases during 1993-2017 were extracted from the National Reporting System. A total of 8015 newly diagnosed HIV cases with address information were included. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal analysis were used to identify HIV clusters. Spatial correlations between cases and socio-demographic factors were determined using spatial regression. RESULTS: HIV cases steadily increased within the Libyan population, particularly among those aged < 27 years. Spatiotemporal analysis showed marked geographic and temporal variation of HIV infection, particularly during 2005-2012. The risk factors varied from one region to another, and the contribution of injection drug use to infection increased with time. Four clusters in three time periods were identified, three on the Mediterranean coast and one in the south. CONCLUSION: HIV is an emerging problem in Libya, particularly among young adults. The infection rate varies greatly among the regions and districts, particularly within certain definable geographical areas. Effective intervention strategies are needed to contain HIV infections, especially within the endemic areas.

The geographic variation and spatiotemporal distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in Libya: 2007-2016.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C Virus infection has been considered an important hidden pandemic in developing countries, particularly in Africa. It varies greatly from one region to another and even within districts of the same region. Macroscopic geospatial analysis has become an important scientific tool for identifying the density and clustering of HCV infection and provides epidemiological information for planning interventions and control strategies. The application of these parameters provides a better knowledge of the hepatitis C virus infection prevalence at the national level and can help to implement pertinent strategies to address the HCV-related burdens. This study aims to determine the geographical variability of HCV infection in Libya and to identify the hot spots within regions and districts of the country, and to analyze the population-based demographic determinants involved and outline the intervention programs needed. METHODS: Disease mapping and spatial analysis were conducted using geographic information data available on all documented cases of HCV infections in Libya between 2007 and 2016. Spatial autocorrelation was tested using Moran's Index, which determines and measures the degree of clustering and dispersion of HCV infection in a country. RESULTS: A total 114,928 HCV infection cases during a ten-year period with accurate geographic information were studied. Ages ranged between 16 and 50 years and the male to female ratio was 2:1. HCV infection was unevenly distributed in Libya, and its incidence increased steadily over the study period. Several hot spots and cold spots were found mainly in the southern and eastern regions of the country. CONCLUSION: HCV infection in Libya was geographically variable, with several hot spots particularly in eastern and southern Libya associated with different demographic determinants. Future intervention planning should consider the geospatial variability and risk factors involved.

The Epidemiology of Hepatitis D Virus in North Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection has been considered a serious neglected pandemic, particularly in developing countries. The virus causes a more severe disease than mono infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV). The epidemiology of HDV is not well documented in North Africa, which is known to be endemic for HBV. In this study, we explored the prevalence of HDV infection and also attempted to identify factors associated with hepatitis D positive status among chronic hepatitis B patients in North Africa. METHODS: The electronic databases PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Science Direct, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were comprehensively searched for all papers published between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2017, using appropriate strategies containing all related keywords, including North Africa, names of countries in the region, and all permutations of hepatitis D virus. The estimated prevalence of HDV in North Africa was calculated as an average of the pooled infection prevalence in each country weighted by the ratio of the country's hepatitis D virus population to the study's sample size in the survey data analysis. FINDINGS: A total of 312 studies were identified and 32 were included in this study, with a total sample of 4907 individuals screened for HDV. There was considerable variability in the prevalence estimates of HDV within the countries of the region. The overall prevalence of HDV in the general population of North Africa was 5·01% (95% CI: 1·25-8·27) and in liver disease patients it was 20.7% (95% CI:9.87-44.53). Genotype-1 was the most prominent genotype reported in five published studies. Ten studies reported on HDV RNA in participants who were seropositive for HDV, and four studies highlighted the impact of demographic factors (sex and age). No study showed the impact of risk factors on the prevalence of HDV in North Africa. INTERPRETATION: This review provides a comprehensive assessment of the burden of HDV in Northern Africa. There were significant differences in seroprevalence, study population, and diagnostic testing between the countries in the region. The results presented here will alert health professionals to implement clear policies based on evidence to diminish the burden of HDV infection. Such measures may include but are not restricted to improving the laboratory diagnostic tests and initiating patient data registries and blood screening. Further epidemiological and research studies are needed to explore the risk factors, coinfections, and approaches to increase testing for HDV, particularly in high-risk subpopulations, such as intravenous drug users and immigrants, and to define the consequences of HDV infection in North Africa.